At dawn in the villages around Sindh River, Nasir Ali wades into his fish ponds, clearing mud from narrow water channels with hove amid starting of summer in his hometown Swabi district. Largely depends on the River Indus water, he along with his brothers at Razar town wakes early in the morning and starts cleaning of water channels for smoth flow to his fish pond.
“If water becomes uncertain, how will we survive?” he asks quietly amid worry after continued IWT (Indus Water Treaty) violations by India. For Nasir Ali and others like him across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Indus Waters Treaty violations by India are no longer distant diplomatic headlines but they are a daily struggle for survival for people depended on water based agricultural industries.
The unilateral decision by India to hold the treaty in abeyance in April last year has triggered alarm across the province, especially in its water-dependent regions. The agreement, signed in 1960 between then President Ayub Khan and Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, had long been seen as a rare pillar of cooperation between the two countries.
Now, experts warned that its weakening could ripple through every layer of life such as from crops and fisheries to energy and industry. “This is about food, not just water for millions of Pakistanis,” Professor Dr Zilakat Malik at the University of Peshawar explains the stakes in stark terms. “Nearly 80 percent of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on the Indus basin,” he said. “If water flows become irregular, crop yields could fall sharply by as much as 40 percent in the worst cases.”
Fields that once yielded wheat, sugarcane, and vegetables are likely to turning barren in Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab, exposing millions of people to hunger and starvation. Orchards of citrus, bananas, watermelon, mangoes and peaches across Pakhtunkhwa may wither. For farmers already battling rising costs, even a small disruption can mean the difference between survival and debt. For former fisheries chief Muhammad Shafi Marwat, the water crisis amid IWT violations is even more immediate that will make negative effects on fisheries sector.
“Fisheries cannot survive on uncertain water,” he reiterated. “If flows are restricted, breeding cycles can collapse overnight.” Cold water species like trout that is thriving in rivers such as Neelum River depend on precise temperatures and steady flows. A sudden drop or surge can wipe them out entirely. “In lower regions of Pakhtunkhwa such as Charsadda, Nowshera and Peshawar, species like Mahseer are also at risk,” he said. “Disrupt one river, and you destabilize the entire ecological chain.” The professor sees the water crisis extending far beyond rivers and farms if IWT violations continue.
“This is not just a resource or diplomatic issue but a food security emergency in the making,” he warned. Glacier-fed systems from the Himalayas, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush sustained millions. Any disruption in water flow could push entire communities towards hunger, he said. Reduced water also means loss of nutrient-rich silt and nature’s fertilizer. Without it, soil fertility declines, fish breeding grounds shrink, and productivity drops across the board.
Communities and fishermen have already witnessed the dangers of erratic flows. “If water is held and then suddenly released, it triggers floods,” Shafi Marwat explained, recalling recent surges in rivers like Jhelum River and Ravi River that destroyed crops and fish farms. At other times, reduced flows leave canals dry, forcing farmers and fishermen to rely on costly groundwater pumping—an option many simply cannot afford due to rising electricity and petrol cost.
Back in his village, Nasir Ali watches as his children help carry buckets of water and fish feed to sustain the pond. He said the cost of fish feed was rising and electricity bills for tube wells were climbing while market prices for food were becoming unpredictable in the province. “If this continues, small farmers and fishermen will be pushed out of the food system entirely,” Dr Zilakat Malik said. Experts are urging global intervention, particularly from the World Bank, to force India to reverse its decision.
They emphasized the need for strengthened water diplomacy, better storage and irrigation systems and efficient water management. But above all, they stressed that the Indus Water Treaty must be preserved as water is survival for agriculture-based economy. As the sun sets over the riverbanks, Nasir Ali’s question lingers in the air. “If the water stops, everything stops,” he said. For millions in Pakhtunkhwa, water is no longer just a resource. It is food, income, culture and survival itself. And as uncertainty grows, so does the fear that what flows through their rivers today may determine whether their future runs dry.
Fakhar-e-Alam contributed this news feature to the Associated Press of Pakistan
